Demographic change and healthcare: The core business of health insurance in the future will no longer just be healing the sick. Health insurers will support healthy people – from the prevention of diseases to increasing well-being and life expectancy. This is the result of a current trend study by 2b AHEAD ThinkTank. Demographic change has a direct impact here.
The healthcare sector will undergo unprecedented change by 2030. With digitalization, the possibilities of medical research, diagnostics, therapy, rehabilitation and prevention are growing at exponential speed. These effects are nowhere more evident than among the fastest-growing groups in our society:
- The old who don’t feel old even when they retire,
- the still older, who in many cases can still lead an active and active life, and
- the very old, still rare today, soon an everyday occurrence.
The good news
The majority of today’s forecasts and future studies address demographic change as a problem and a threat. Of course, it will present us with social and economic challenges of an unprecedented scale. But for both individuals and our communities, demographic change represents the greatest conceivable progress: the considerable extension of one’s own life in activity and self-determination. Demographic change may be expensive news, but above all it is good news.
People born in this decade realistically reach an age of over 100 years. It is the interaction of four influential drivers that brings the dream of longer life within reach. The first condition is the freely available gene analysis. The second development concerns the breeding of individual copies of internal organs, which may be optimised compared to the previous version. The third prerequisite is a comprehensive understanding of the aging processes of humans. The fourth element is the synchronization of the human psyche with the virtual world. A breakthrough in research in all four fields is likely in the coming years.
For the sake of completeness: There is a well-founded opposite position to this, especially taken up here in the blog. It is represented among others by the medical ethicist Ezekiel J. Emanuel. He fears extension as a phase of helplessness and diminishing dignity.
The increase of well-being
A decisive change in dealing with human health is the disappearance of the binary assumption that a patient is either healthy or ill. This categorical distinction has always been a fiction anyway. Nobody’s just sick or just healthy. Instead – assuming the corresponding amount of data and its continuous collection – the individual well-being can be measured and located on a scale. This is changing the goal of medical action. While yesterday the focus was on repair and damage prevention, tomorrow it will be on gradually improving one’s own well-being. What can I do to feel a little better tomorrow – and who will support me? The enlightened healthcare customers of the future are very consciously and with the support of digital assistance systems selecting the most competent physician for their situation, the appropriate insurance and the trustworthy data manager from their individual healthcare network. At the same time, they will no longer accept that the interaction of several service providers is associated with increased effort for them.
In the near future, evidence-based, personalised recommendations for targeted prevention will replace the always identical bonus booklets of health insurance companies and lump-sum and overall undirected health-promoting measures.
Test Case Robotics in Nursing
This can be clearly seen in the emergence of robotics in care. Robotics became a widely accepted matter of course in the course of the 1920s. This has long been the case in the field of dementia care. The fact that a robot has the patience to listen to the same question, the same story, the same excitement over and over again as it did the first time makes this development even easier.
However, the development will not be limited to animated stuffed animals. This is shown in the example of medication. Where nursing staff still have to work by hand today, the procedure is time-consuming and prone to errors. The next step is automated dispensing of medication to the patient at home: individual implementation of the medication plan by a pill robot. In the next step, robots learn to analyse the state of health of humans. By blood sample, air analysis, nutrition tracking, later by observing the skin temperature, the movement patterns and by voice analysis. The dosage of the active ingredient is calculated in real time.
In the next expansion stage, the medication robot is able to print the individually appropriate active ingredients onto a carrier directly before ingestion. Is this a relief for the nursing service? With great certainty. Does this development, and thus indirectly the demographic change, have the potential to improve the well-being of the individual patient? With a very high probability. These are the simple questions. But whose knowledge is the robot`s work based on? As soon as he has access to networked medical knowledge, his professional competence will always be higher than that of the individual doctor. For the time being, the family doctor is still needed to issue prescriptions, which also makes up for a reason to exist professionally. His profession will change permanently, a thesis that Markus Bönig of Vitabook has just confirmed here. The medicines or active ingredients do not have to be purchased in the pharmacy around the corner anyway. This opens up completely new business areas for new players.
An additional driver of this development is the currently exponentially growing networking of buildings, starting with Ambient Assistant Living. The smart home of the person in need of care is the first and most competent care robot. This means that completely new players are suddenly active in the health industry: Network operators, property managers, building contractors, manufacturers of electronics and sensor technology. This, too, is an indirect consequence of demographic change.
Health insurers as the health promoters of the future must start much earlier in the process, which means that they will occupy a much more active and positive position in the perception of health customers. The one-size-fits-it-all-principle has had its day. In future, health promoters will not react only when health customers are ill, but will continuously monitor their current state of health and act before the onset of a foreseeable illness. This too: That’s good news.